What Is It?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell contracts tied to future events. Unlike traditional sports betting, participants buy and sell contracts that change in value based on market activity and participant demand. Markets may involve sports, economics, entertainment, politics, and other future events.

How It Works

Binary (Yes/No) Markets

Participants purchase contracts based on whether they believe an event will happen.

For example:

  • “Yes” contracts pay if the event happens.
  • “No” contracts pay if the event does not happen.

Multiple-Outcome Markets

Participants select from several possible outcomes.

For example:

  • Which team will win a championship?
  • Which candidate will win an election?

The prices of all possible outcomes combined equal 100%.

Understanding Market Prices

Unlike many forms of gambling, contracts can often be sold before an event concludes. Contract values may rise or fall based on new information and market activity.

Safer Play Tips

Safer play means understanding uncertainty, market prices, and your risk.

  • Understand the difference between probability and certainty.
  • Remember that market prices are not guaranteed.
  • Consider multiple sources of information.
  • Avoid viewing prediction markets as a source of income.
  • Participate only with money you can afford to lose.

When to Call a Time Out

You may want to take a break if:

  • You’re making increasingly larger trades after losses.
  • You’re checking markets compulsively.
  • Market participation is creating financial stress.
  • You’re treating probabilities as certainties.
  • You’re spending more time or money than intended monitoring markets.

Taking a Time Out

  • Vermont does not currently offer a state-sponsored self-exclusion program specific to prediction markets.
  • Consider using digital blocking tools such as BetBlocker®, Gamban®, or SelfExclude.io to help limit access to gambling websites and apps during a break from play.
  • Free and confidential support is available 24/7 through 1-800-GAMBLER or LiveChat at VTGamblingHelp.org.

Hope to win, expect to lose.

You decide how much money to bet and be comfortable losing it. Enjoy the game regardless of the outcome!